水下航行体惯性类水动力系数的计算方法

为了系统地计算水下航行体全套惯性类水动力系数,提高计算效率和计算精度,通过基于无粘模型的计算方法对水下航行体的运动进行了预报;通过UDF及动网格技术,对匀速运动和匀加速运动的SUBOFF模型进行了分析.设计了单方向速度线性变化的匀加速直线运动和匀加速回转运动,并通过换算和数值拟合处理得到了潜艇所受的惯性力和惯性类水动力系数.该系数与试验误差保证在6％之内,验证了所提方法的可行性及准确性.     

Choosing arrival process models for service systems: Tests of a nonhomogeneous Poisson process

Service systems such as call centers and hospital emergency rooms typically have strongly time‐varying arrival rates. Thus, a nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) is a natural model for the arrival process in a queueing model for performance analysis. Nevertheless, it is important to perform statistical tests with service system data to confirm that an NHPP is actually appropriate, as emphasized by Brown et al. [8]. They suggested a specific statistical test based on the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) statistic after exploiting the conditional‐uniform (CU) property to transform the NHPP into a sequence of i.i.d. random variables uniformly distributed on [0,1] and then performing a logarithmic transformation of the data. We investigate why it is important to perform the final data transformation and consider what form it should take. We conduct extensive simulation experiments to study the power of these alternative statistical tests. We conclude that the general approach of Brown et al. [8] is excellent, but that an alternative data transformation proposed by Lewis [22], drawing upon Durbin [10], produces a test of an NHPP test with consistently greater power. We also conclude that the KS test after the CU transformation, without any additional data transformation, tends to be best to test against alternative hypotheses that primarily differ from an NHPP only through stochastic and time dependence. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 66–90, 2014     

The impact of operational decisions on the design of salesforce incentives

When facing high levels of overstock inventories, firms often push their salesforce to work harder than usual to attract more demand, and one way to achieve that is to offer attractive incentives. However, most research on the optimal design of salesforce incentives ignores this dependency and assumes that operational decisions of production/inventory management are separable from design of salesforce incentives. We investigate this dependency in the problem of joint salesforce incentive design and inventory/production control. We develop a dynamic Principal‐Agent model with both Moral Hazard and Adverse Selection in which the principal is strategic and risk‐neutral but the agent is myopic and risk‐averse. We find the optimal joint incentive design and inventory control strategy, and demonstrate the impact of operational decisions on the design of a compensation package. The optimal strategy is characterized by a menu of inventory‐dependent salesforce compensation contracts. We show that the optimal compensation package depends highly on the operational decisions; when inventory levels are high, (a) the firm offers a more attractive contract and (b) the contract is effective in inducing the salesforce to work harder than usual. In contrast, when inventory levels are low, the firm can offer a less attractive compensation package, but still expect the salesforce to work hard enough. In addition, we show that although the inventory/production management and the design of salesforce compensation package are highly correlated, information acquisition through contract design allows the firm to implement traditional inventory control policies: a market‐based state‐dependent policy (with a constant base‐stock level when the inventory is low) that makes use of the extracted market condition from the agent is optimal. This work appears to be the first article on operations that addresses the important interplay between inventory/production control and salesforce compensation decisions in a dynamic setting. Our findings shed light on the effective integration of these two significant aspects for the successful operation of a firm. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 320–340, 2014     

基于数据站场的系统效能评估决策支持方法

随着信息技术的发展,系统信息量的提升给军事系统效能评估带来了新的问题。针对系统效能分析数据非线性、高维数、强耦合的特点,提出了一种基于数据站场技术的效能评估决策支持方法。通过数据恢复、约减、求精与重构操作,对评估数据进行了处理,并搭建了数据站场立方体,降低了数据间的依赖性,满足了不同层面系统分析的需求。以面向任务的网络化火控系统的为例,进行了系统效能评估、时效性评估和指标分析,从三个层次验证了方法的有效性与可行性。将数据挖掘技术应用到仿真系统效能评估决策中,获得了更广泛的应用。     

考虑弹体动态特性的机动效率约束导引律

针对考虑交会角和过载约束导引律在大机动时能量损失大的问题,提出一种考虑导弹机动效率的多约束制导律。应用最优二次型原理推导出考虑一阶弹体延迟的时变导引系数闭环次优制导形式,将导弹机动时刻阻力系数引入时变权系数,并通过迭代确定机动效率约束边界。将时变约束表示成剩余时间与弹体延迟时间的函数,代入制导指令,进行弹道仿真。结果表明,对于常值与机动目标,文中制导律与过载约束导引律同只考虑交会角约束的导引律相比,对目标均能实现末端弹道成型要求,而考虑机动效率的制导指令分配更为合理,在避免指令加速度饱和的同时有效降低了拦截末端速度损耗,提高制导精度与毁伤效果。且该制导律中时变权系数无须配平求解,在保证精度的同时极大地提高了迭代速度。     

Index policies for the routing of background jobs

Arriving (generic) jobs may be processed at one of several service stations, but only when no other (dedicated) jobs are waiting there. We consider the problem of how to route these incoming background jobs to make best use of the spare service capacity available at the stations. We develop an approximative approach to Whittle's proposal for restless bandits to obtain an index policy for routing. The indices concerned are increasing and nonlinear in the station workload. A numerical study testifies to the strong performance of the index policies developed. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

Dynamic inventory and pricing models for competing retailers

We address infinite‐horizon models for oligopolies with competing retailers under demand uncertainty. We characterize the equilibrium behavior which arises under simple wholesale pricing schemes. More specifically, we consider a periodic review, infinite‐horizon model for a two‐echelon system with a single supplier servicing a network of competing retailers. In every period, each retailer faces a random demand volume, the distribution of which depends on his own retail price as well as those charged by possibly all competing retailers. We also derive various comparative statics results regarding the impact several exogenous system parameters (e.g., cost or distributional parameters) have on the equilibrium decisions of the retailers as well as their expected profits. We show that certain monotonicity properties, engrained in folklore as well as in known inventory models for centralized systems, may break down in decentralized chains under retailer competition. Our results can be used to optimize the aggregate profits in the supply chain (i.e., those of the supplier and all retailers) by implementing a specific wholesale pricing scheme. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004.     

灾害应急反应建模与仿真

为了满足多智能体应急反应仿真的需求,首先对构建多智能体应急反应仿真模拟框架的复杂性进行了分析,在此基础上提出并设计了组件式仿真模拟框架.采用本体(Ontology)建模、语义网模型及产生式规则推理等理论方法构建了仿真模拟框架的场景建模模块、人员Agent建模模块等组件.最后对依照上述研究内容所开发的原型系统进行了测试,对测试结果进行了分析,结果表明该框架能够有效满足多智能体应急反应仿真的建模需求.     

起重机吊重摆角的产生机理与动态仿真研究

针对吊重二自由度摆角非线性动力学模型,研究了起重机吊重摆角的产生机理和摆角的影响因素。起重机小车和大车同时做加（减）速的复合运动时,产生吊重二自由度摆角,摆角的大小受起升绳长度和小车运行加（减）速度大小的影响。动态仿真表明：小车运行加（减）速度对摆角的影响比绳长度显著;小车起动和制动时,吊重做受迫摆动;当小车加（减）速度增大l倍时,吊重摆角约增大0．12rad,摆速约增大0．164rad／s;当绳长度增加2m时,摆角和摆速无明显变化,吊重自由摆动的周期约增加1．3s。     

要地反巡探测系统漏警率的建模及评估

要地反巡探测系统的设计需根据作战指标确定系统能力,此问题涉及到系统的建模及效能评估。应用随机服务理论,对要地反巡探测系统的搜索过程建立了M/D/C模型。根据M/D/C模型计算公式,以AR320地基监视雷达、地空联合探测的搜索过程为算例,验证了搜索模型的正确性,给出了目标漏警率、搜索波束数量与目标出动强度的关系。此模型扩展性良好,研究结果可对系统的设计和评价有所借鉴。